Thành viên:Văn Hóa Làng Xã VN/Chế độ độc tài gia đình trị
Chế độ độc tài gia đình trị (tiếng Anh: family dictatorship hoặc hereditary dictatorship), in political science terms a personalistic regime, is a form of dictatorship that occurs in a nominally or formally republican or socialist regime, but operates in practice like an absolute monarchy or despotate, in that political power passes within the dictator's family like a hereditary monarchy. Thus, although the key leader is often called president or prime minister rather than a king or emperor, power is transmitted between members of the same family due to the overwhelming authority of the leader. Sometimes the leader has been declared president for life and uses this power to nominate one of his or her family as successor.
A family dictatorship is different from a monarchy , or a political family (where members of the family possess informal, rather than formal and overwhelming political authority).
Successful transitions of power
[sửa | sửa mã nguồn]Dates in parentheses denote the period of rule.
Europe
[sửa | sửa mã nguồn]- Roman Republic: Gaius Julius Caesar (49–44 BCE) succeeded by his grand-nephew and adopted son Gaius Julius Caesar Octavianus (44–27 BCE).
- Roman Empire: The early dynasties of the Roman Empire, the Principate, operated similarly to a family dictatorship. Augustus (27 BCE–14 CE) kept up the facade of a republic during his reign but designated his own successor, Tiberius, by adopting Tiberius and convincing the Senate to transfer his powers to Tiberius (14 CE–37 CE) upon his death. For three hundred years, subsequent emperors customarily designated their successor by adoption, most famously during the Julio-Claudian (27 BCE–68 CE) & Nerva-Antonine (96–192 CE) dynasties. But, from the outset, this was due to a combination of factors, including ill-luck, political intrigue, the necessitation of a valid heir, and the influence of the Praetorian Guard following the assassination of Caligula (37–41 CE), rather than Augustus's original intentions for succession to the throne. From the reign of Diocletian (284–305 CE) onwards, during the Dominate, emperors ruled in an openly monarchic style.
Dutch Republic: Stadtholders were chosen exclusively from the House of Orange-Nassau. In all, nine princes of this dynasty ruled the Republic from 1559 to 1795. Stadtholders were described as dictators by William Aglionby in his 1669 book, The Present State of the United Provinces of the Low-Countries.[1]- Bản mẫu:Country data The Protectorate: Oliver Cromwell (1653–1658) succeeded as Lord Protector by his son Richard Cromwell (1658–1659). Richard Cromwell was overthrown by the army in Spring 1659, leading to the restoration of King Charles II the next year.
Central and South America
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Paraguay: Carlos Antonio López (President, 1840–1862); succeeded by his son, Francisco Solano López (1862–1870)
El Salvador: Carlos Meléndez (President, 1915–1918), succeeded by his brother Jorge Meléndez (1919–1923), succeeded by his brother-in-law Alfonso Quiñónez Molina (acting 1918–1919, 1923–1927)
Dominican Republic: Rafael Trujillo (de facto 1930–1961, with brother Héctor serving as figurehead president 1952–1960), nominally succeeded by his son Ramfis Trujillo for a few months in 1961; Ramfis failed to fully consolidate his power over the country and was overthrown.
Nicaragua: Anastasio Somoza García (President, 1937–1947, de facto 1947–1950, 1950–1956), succeeded by his son Luis Somoza Debayle (1956–1963, de facto 1963–1967), succeeded by his brother Anastasio Somoza Debayle (1967–1972, de facto 1972–1974, 1974–1979). See also Somoza family.
Haiti: François Duvalier (President and later President For Life, 1957–1971); succeeded by his son Jean-Claude Duvalier (President For Life, 1971–1986). See also Duvalier dynasty.
Cuba: Fidel Castro (variously as Prime Minister, President, and First Secretary of the Communist Party, 1959–2011), succeeded by his brother Raúl Castro (2011–2021).
Argentina: Juan Perón (President, 1972–1974) succeeded by his wife Isabel Perón (1974–1976).
Asia
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Azerbaijan: Heydar Aliyev (President, 1993–2003); succeeded by his son Ilham Aliyev (2003–present).
Republic of China (Taiwan): Chiang Kai-shek (1928–1975) succeeded by his son Chiang Ching-kuo (1975–1988)[a]
North Korea: Kim Il-sung (1948–1994), succeeded by his son Kim Jong-il (1994–2011), succeeded by his son Kim Jong-un (2011–present). Kim Jong-il did not officially take office until 1997, when his father was posthumously given the position of Eternal President. On 2 June 2009, it was reported that Kim Jong-il's youngest son, Kim Jong-un, was to be North Korea's next leader.[2] Like his father and grandfather, he was given an official sobriquet, The Great Successor and The Brilliant Comrade.[3] It was reported that Kim Jong-il was expected to officially designate the son as his successor in 2012,[4] but Kim Jong-il died in 2011 and Kim Jong-un was nevertheless announced as his successor.[5] The 2013 edition of the "Ten Fundamental Principles of the Korean Workers' Party" – Article 10, Clause 2 – states that the Party and Revolution must be carried "eternally" by the "Baekdu (Kim's) bloodline".[6] See also Kim Dynasty.
Iraq: Abdul Salam Arif (President, 1963–1966); succeeded by his brother Abdul Rahman Arif (1966–1968).
Japan: During the Shogunate rule (1185-1868), Shogun were appointed by the Emperor from several clans and practiced hereditary succession throughout its rule.
Syria: Hafez al-Assad (1971–2000), succeeded by his son Bashar al-Assad (2000–present). Bashar's elder brother, Basil al-Assad, had been designated for the presidency but died in 1994, six years prior to his father's death. See also Al-Assad family.
Iraq: President Ahmed Hassan Al Bakr (1968-1979) succeeded by his cousin Saddam Hussein (1979-2003).
Africa
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Equatorial Guinea: Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo (1979–present) overthrew his uncle Francisco Macías Nguema (President; 1968–1979) in a coup d'état.
Gabon: Omar Bongo (Acting President, 1966–1967; President, 1967–2009) died in June 2009. His son Ali Bongo Ondimba (2009–present) succeeded him after winning a disputed election in August 2009.
Niger: Seyni Kountché (President; 1974–1987) was succeeded by his cousin Ali Saibou (1987–1993) after his death.
Togo: Gnassingbé Eyadéma (President, 1967–2005); succeeded by his son Faure Gnassingbé (2005–present). Under international pressure, Faure had to resign on 25 February 2005, but was elected to the presidency in April 2005.
Djibouti: Hassan Gouled Aptidon (President, 1977–1999); succeeded by his nephew Ismaïl Omar Guelleh (1999–present).
Chad: Idriss Déby (President, 1990–2021); killed during the northern Chad offensive and succeeded by his son Mahamat Déby Itno (2021–present).
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Laurent-Désiré Kabila (President, 1997–2001); succeeded by his son Joseph Kabila (2001–2019). Joseph Kabila was democratically elected in October 2006.
- Notes
- ^ Chiang Ching-kuo was Premier 1972–1978 and Chairman of the Kuomintang 1975–1988.
Unfulfilled successions
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Hungary: Miklós Horthy (1920–1944) designated his son István Horthy to succeed him as regent until Istvan was killed by accident in 1942.- Argentina: Juan Perón (President, 1946–1955) planned for his wife, Eva Perón, to succeed him until her death in 1952.
China: After the death of Mao Zedong (Chairman of the Chinese Communist Party, 1943–1976), his wife Jiang Qing planned a bloodless coup with the Gang of Four, but was failed due to the action from Mao’s successor Hua Guofeng.
South Vietnam: Ngô Đình Diệm (Prime Minister, 1954–1955; President, 1955–1963) intended to hand power to his brother, Ngô Đình Nhu until both were arrested and assassinated during the 1963 coup.
Zaire: President Mobutu Sese Seko (1965-1997) known to have 17 children from his two wives and mistresses. For years Mobutu has groomed his children to become is potential successor, especially his eldest son Niwa Mobutu, who was appointed as Minister of International Cooperation and his other son Kongolu Mobutu who was a captain of DSP. After the end of First Congo War in 1997, Mobutu regime was overthrown and forced into exile in Morocco until he died the same year. Both of his potential successor Niwa and Kongolu both died in Monaco of AIDS one year later.
Philippines: Ferdinand Marcos (1965–1986) intended his wife Imelda Marcos to be his successor but was ousted through the People Power Revolution. In addition, their son Bongbong Marcos was also included to succeed him.[7]
Indonesia: Suharto (President, 1967–1998) intended to hand power to his daughter, Siti Hardiyanti Rukmana or his son, Tommy Suharto to be his successor but the succession never happened as he resigned after the violent protest in 1998. He was later replaced by his vice-president B. J. Habibie.[8][9]
România: Elena Ceaușescu, wife of Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceaușescu (General Secretary of the Romanian Communist Party, 1965–1989; President of the State Council, 1967–1989; President, 1974–1989), was intended to succeed her husband until they were executed during the 1989 Romanian Revolution.[10] In addition, they were preparing their son, Nicu Ceaușescu, to succeed them.
Libya: It was speculated that Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, the second son of then-leader Muammar Gaddafi (Brotherly Leader and Guide of the Revolution, 1969–2011) was going to succeed Gaddafi as leader, but Muammar was overthrown and killed. In addition, Saif al-Islam stated that "this is not a farm to inherit".[11] Muammar Gaddafi's fourth son Mutassim Gaddafi was considered Saif al-Islam's strongest competitor in the question of succeeding their father.[12]
Bangladesh: Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the first President of Bangladesh (1971–1975), expected his son Sheikh Kamal to succeed him. Both were assassinated in 1975.
Yemen: In 2004, Ali Abdullah Saleh (President of North Yemen then President of unified Yemen, 1978–2012) appointed his son, Ahmed Saleh, as commander of the Yemeni Republican Guard – a move interpreted by analysts as designating a family succession. Amid the Yemeni Revolution in 2012 and shortly after being elected president, Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi dissolved the Republican Guard, effectively removing Ahmed Saleh from any meaningful power.- Iraq: Saddam Hussein (1979–2003) designated his elder son Uday Hussein to succeed him as president, then changed the succession to his younger son Qusay Hussein after Uday suffered a severe injury in 1996. The U.S. invasion of Iraq and the death of both his sons, followed by Saddam's trial and subsequent execution made a successor irrelevant. See also Saddam's family.
Angola: In 2010, José Eduardo dos Santos (President, 1979–2017) appointed his cousin Fernando da Piedade Dias dos Santos as Vice-President of Angola which opened speculation about a succession. However, in 2012, the ruling People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola announced President dos Santos' candidacy for re-election instead, because he had no intention to retire until 2017, when João Lourenço was chosen to succeed him instead.[13]
Zimbabwe: Robert Mugabe (Prime Minister then President, 1980–2017) wanted his wife Grace to succeed him,[14][15][16] but this was prevented by a military coup.
Malaysia: Mahathir Mohamad (Prime Minister, 1981–2003; 2018–2020) once told the high court that he would have made his son, Mukhriz Mahathir, head of government long ago, but this never happened as Mahathir chose Abdullah Ahmad Badawi (initially Anwar Ibrahim) as his successor later.[17]
Egypt: Hosni Mubarak (President, 1981–2011) groomed his son Gamal Mubarak to become his successor, but was ousted in the 2011 Egyptian revolution.[18]
Tunisia: It was speculated that either Leïla Ben Ali, the wife of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali (President of Tunisia, 1987–2011),[19][20][21][22] or their youngest son Mohamed Zine El Abidine Ben Ali[23][24][20] were going to succeed Ben Ali, until the Ben Ali family fled into exile amid the 2011 Tunisian Revolution.
Uzbekistan: Some believed during Islam Karimov's (President, 1991–2016) rule, he initially had prepared his daughter, Gulnara Karimova to succeed him as President.[25] However, she later was implicated in many scandals and was reported to have conflict with Karimov, resulted in her fall from grace and house arrest which ended her business and political career.[26]
Kazakhstan: Analysts believed long-time leader Nursultan Nazarbayev (President, 1991–2019) had been preparing his daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva to succeed him. Despite a strained relationship during 2013;[27] in September 2016, Dariga was appointed to the Senate – she was designated as head of the Senate's International Affairs, Defense, and Security Committee.[28] On 19 March 2019, Nazarbayev resigned as president and was succeeded by Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. Following Nursultan's resignation, Dariga was elected Chairwoman of the Senate leading some analysts to believe she would run for president in the scheduled 2020 election.[29][30] Dariga chose to not run in the snap June 2019 presidential election.- Bản mẫu:Country data Union of Myanmar Myanmar: There are some sources that stated Nay Shwe Thway Aung, the favourite grandson of former military leader Than Shwe (Chairman of the State Peace and Development Council, 1992–2011) was given military high rank despite never actually served in the military. The move created speculation that Nay Shwe Thway Aung was the next in line to succeed his grandfather rule. However, the succession never happened as Myanmar returned to democracy in 2011.[31][32][33][34]
Venezuela: It was speculated that Adán Chávez, the brother of then-leader Hugo Chávez (President, 1999–2013) was going to succeed Chávez as president, although this did not happen. There was also speculation that one of Hugo Chávez's daughters, Maria Gabriela or Rosa Virginia, would succeed him.[35]
Potential successions
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- Azerbaijan: The Vice President and First Lady of Azerbaijan Mehriban Aliyeva is widely considered to be in line to succeed her husband Ilham Aliyev as President of Azerbaijan. Analysts also believe that their daughters Leyla and Arzu are also being prepared as their father's or their mother's successors.[36] On 21 February 2017 Mehriban Aliyeva was appointed Vice President of Azerbaijan, an office that was created through a constitutional referendum in 2016.[37]
Belarus: The Daily Telegraph has reported that President Alexander Lukashenko has been preparing to have his young son Nikolai succeed him.[38] Observers have noted how Lukashenko often brings his son on official engagements.[39] On some occasions Nikolai is given a chair with the other heads of state, in sharp contrast with, for instance, the children of the then-President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov also present in the conference room.
Cambodia: The Cambodian prime minister, Hun Sen, has appointed his eldest son, Hun Manet, to a higher military command to prepare him for the premiership.[40]
Cameroon: Franck Biya, the son of President Paul Biya has been speculated to be the favourite pick to succeed his father's rule as the country leader.[41]
Eritrea: There is a rumour that President Isaias Afewerki is grooming his son, Abraham Isaias Afwerki in order to prepare him as his successor.[42]- Equatorial Guinea: On 3 August 1979, President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo seized power from his uncle[43] Francisco Macías Nguema. It is rumored that his son, the First Vice President Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue, is his favorite to succeed him[44] (see also 2011 Equatorial Guinean constitutional referendum). However, it is suspected that a power struggle between the younger Teodoro and his uncle Armengol Ondo Nguema might occur after President Obiang's death.
Iran: According to Iranian journalist Momahad Ahwaze report, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is going to hand power to his son Sayyid Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei, which said to be his favourite pick to be his successor due to his declining health.[45]
Nicaragua: On 10 January 2017, Rosario Murillo, wife of Nicaraguan president Daniel Ortega, was appointed as vice president of Nicaragua, which raised speculation that Murillo will succeed Ortega as president later.[46]- North Korea: The sister of the Chairman of the WPK Kim Jong-un, Kim Yo-jong, had been removed from the Politburo, but became vice-member in April 2020, further fueling speculation about a possible successor. It is rumored that she takes over state business if he cannot run it for health reasons.[47][48] His daughter Kim Ju-ae as a formal successor as a puppet is also speculated in the event of his death.[49] Other candidates are said to be his brother Kim Jong-chul, his half-uncle Kim Pyong-il, and his wife Ri Sol-ju.[50][51]
Russia: In July 2020, the great-nephew of President Vladimir Putin, Roman Putin, led the "People against Corruption" party.[52] Some media believe that this is preparation for the transfer of the presidency from uncle to nephew.[53]
Tajikistan: On 3 April 2017, Rustam Emomali, the son of President Emomali Rahmon, was elected to the city legislature of the capital and largest city, Dushanbe. This made Rahmon's earlier appointment of Rustam Emomali as Mayor of Dushanbe legal. President Rahmon has other "close relatives" in "high official positions" in Tajikistan.[54][55] For example, Ozoda Rahmon, one of President Rahmon's daughters, is both her father's chief of the presidential staff and a member of the National Assembly, the upper house of the Tajik parliament.[56]
Turkey: Some observers believe that especially since the shock of the 2016 coup attempt, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan tends to trust his own family more than his party or senior bureaucrats.[57][58] A potential successor could be his son-in-law Berat Albayrak, who held the influential post of finance minister from 2018 to 2020.[59][60][61]
Turkmenistan: On 22 March 2017, the son of President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow, Assembly member[62] Serdar Berdimuhamedow, was appointed to chair the parliament's legal affairs committee – a move interpreted to be bringing Serdar closer to succeeding Gurbanguly.[63] On 2 January 2019, Serdar was appointed by his father, President Gurbanguly, as Deputy Governor of the Ahal region.[64] Serdar was elevated to Governor of the Ahal region on 17 June 2019.[65]
Uganda: Critics believe long-time president Yoweri Museveni has been preparing his son Muhoozi Kainerugaba to succeed him. The President's son was commander of Uganda's military elite Special Forces Group until January 2017 when the President appointed him Senior Adviser to the President for Special Operations, plus since 1998 Muhoozi has gone from the rank of Major to Lieutenant General in quick succession. All of this is leading the succession rumours to swell even more.[cần dẫn nguồn]- Venezuela: There is a rumor that Nicolás Maduro Guerra, the son of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, is being prepared to succeed his father as Maduro Guerra was named in 2017 as the director of a newly created position, the Director General of Delegations and Presidential Instructions of the Vice President; the creation of which is believed to establish a line of succession.[66]
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[sửa | sửa mã nguồn]Chú thích
[sửa | sửa mã nguồn]- ^ Aglionby, William A. (1669), The Present State of the United Provinces of the Low-Countries. John Starkey.
- ^ North Korean leader Kim Jong-il 'names youngest son as successor', The Guardian, 2 June 2009
- ^ “North Korea: A 'Brilliant Comrade'”. The New York Times. 12 tháng 6 năm 2009. Truy cập ngày 13 tháng 6 năm 2009.
- ^ "Report: NKorea's Kim has pancreatic cancer", Associated Press, 12 July 2009.
- ^ Fackler, Martin (19 tháng 12 năm 2011). “Kim's Heir Likely to Focus on Stability”. The New York Times. Truy cập ngày 20 tháng 12 năm 2011.
- ^ The Twisted Logic of the N. Korean Regime, Chosun Ilbo, 2013-08-13, Accessed date: 2017-01-11
- ^ The Steel Butterfly Still Soars. The New York Times. October 6, 2012.
- ^ Fadrik Aziz Firdausi (1 tháng 3 năm 2018). Ivan Aulia Hasan (biên tập). “Jatuh Bangun Tommy Soeharto Tegakkan Dinasti Politik Cendana”. Tirto.id.
- ^ Feri Agus (12 tháng 3 năm 2018). “Skenario Soeharto untuk Memuluskan Tutut jadi Presiden”. CNN Indonesia.
- ^ “Declassified C.I.A. documents show Ceausescu succession scenarios for Romania”. Bản gốc lưu trữ ngày 22 tháng 2 năm 2017.
- ^ "Qaddafi's son declares he's leaving politics" Lưu trữ 2008-09-15 tại Wayback Machine, Associated Press (International Herald Tribune), 22 August 2008.
- ^ “Süddeutsche Zeitung am 12. Oktober 2011: Verwirrung um Festnahme von Gaddafi-Sohn Mutassim”. Truy cập ngày 1 tháng 11 năm 2011.
- ^ "Angolan president reshuffles govt after new charter", Reuters, 4 February 2010.
- ^ “Mugabe – Vom Freiheitskämpfer zum Despoten”. Die Welt. Welt. 21 tháng 11 năm 2017. Truy cập ngày 4 tháng 8 năm 2018.
- ^ “Sie flog auf Staatskosten zum Shoppen nach New York”. Bild. 16 tháng 11 năm 2017. Truy cập ngày 4 tháng 8 năm 2018.
- ^ “Das Volk hungert, die First Lady shoppt”. Der Tagesspiegel. 1 tháng 9 năm 2017. Truy cập ngày 4 tháng 8 năm 2018.
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- ^ Aziz, Muhammad Abdul and Hussein, Youssef (2002) "The President, the Son, and the Military: Succession in Egypt" Arab Studies Journal 9/10: pp. 73–88
- ^ "Tunesien: Das Präsidenten-Gold", Abendzeitung), 17 Januar 2011.
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- ^ "Despot Housewives – Die Frauen der Diktatoren (1)", ZDF), 17 May 2011. (40:37)
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- ^ Muriel Mirak-Weißbach (2014). Herrschen bis der Frühling kommt: Profil der Machthaber in Tunesien, Ägypten, Jemen, Libyen und Syrien. ISBN 9783942223959.
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- ^ Karimov's Last Supper
- ^ Kazakhstan: Apparent Rift Opens Within Nazarbaev Family. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
- ^ "Kazakh president's daughter appointed head of Senate committee", Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 16 September 2016.
- ^ “Политологи назвали Даригу Назарбаеву будущим президентом Казахстана после "временного" Токаева”. МК.ru (bằng tiếng Nga). Truy cập ngày 20 tháng 3 năm 2019.
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- ^ “Than Shwe's Granddaughter Celebrates 4th Birthday with Rangoon Elite”. The Irrawaddy. 8 tháng 12 năm 2010.
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- ^ “Venezuela: The succession”.
- ^ Haley Sweetland Edwards, “AZERBAIJAN: WikiLeaks depicts lifestyles of Baku's rich and powerful”, Los Angeles Times, 25 Dec 2010, Accessed 26 Mar 2013
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Gegebenenfalls könnte sogar die 7-jährige Tochter von Kim Jong Un als «Bauer» im ganzen Machtspiel eingesetzt werden, meint Ellis. So würde beispielsweise die Frau von Kim – Ri Sol Ju – auf den Thron gelangen.
- ^ “Wirbel um Nordkorea-Machthaber: Welche Personen als mögliche Kim-Nachfolger gelten”. Focus. 26 tháng 4 năm 2020. Truy cập ngày 26 tháng 4 năm 2020.
- ^ “Kim Jong Un's Successor Could Be His Uncle, Kim Pyong Il”.
- ^ Двоюродный племянник Путина стал главой партии «Народ против коррупции» // Статья от 05.07.2020 г. «РБК». М. Лисицына.
- ^ «После Путина будет Путин». Племянник Путина получил свою партию // Статья от 06.07.2020 г. «Радио Свобода». А. Рудина.
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- ^ “Daughter Of Tajik President Named Deputy Head Of Major Bank”. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's Tajik Service. 18 tháng 7 năm 2017. Truy cập ngày 1 tháng 8 năm 2017.
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- ^ “Die Nachfolge Erdogans: alles bleibt in der Familie”. Stuttgarter Nachrichten. 18 tháng 7 năm 2018. Truy cập ngày 4 tháng 8 năm 2018.
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